Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rates

Everyone who’s ever turned on the news has heard about the RBA cash rate and how big of an impact it can have on the Australian economy. But what exactly is this rate, how is it decided, and why does it matter? Learning about RBA interest rates can make you a savvier consumer who is more informed when making important financial decisions.

What is the RBA cash rate?

When people mention the “RBA cash rate,” they are referring to the interest rate that the Reserve Bank of Australia has set for its loans to financial institutions. This becomes the rate that banks and other lenders are able to borrow at, which then affects the interest rates they provide to consumers.

The cash rate interacts with many areas of the Australian economy, including home mortgages, savings accounts, and even the foreign currency exchange rates. Changes to the rate have a major impact because they determine how cheap or expensive it becomes to borrow money.

As of July 2023, the RBA interest rate sits at 4.10%.

How does the RBA cash rate work?

From February to December, RBA officials meet on the first Tuesday of the month in order to determine any changes to the cash rate. Their decisions are closely watched and analysed, due to the impacts on consumer spending, investment, employment, and inflation.

In a slower economy, the cash rate is usually lowered so that business and personal loans become more affordable, thus stimulating economic growth. However, if the economy is growing too quickly, the cash rate is usually raised in order to dampen economic activity and prevent excess inflation.

What is the RBA? What does the RBA do?

The Reserve Bank Australia exists as the nation’s central bank, and it is tasked with controlling monetary policy for Australia. They are responsible for the stability of the Australian dollar, the strength of the labour market within the country, and the general prosperity of the country.

The RBA aims to act cautiously and predictably in order to nurture steady and sustainable growth of the Australian economy. During times of financial emergency, the RBA attempts to stabilise the markets and minimise any economic downturn.

What influences interest rates in Australia?

There are a variety of factors that the RBA must consider when announcing interest rate hikes or drops. These are some of the key aspects of the economy that they evaluate.

Inflation

The RBA considers the optimal inflation rate to be within 2 to 3%. If inflation is high and prices are increasing, the RBA may try to increase interest rates, as seen in 2022. However, if inflation remains low, the RBA is likely to keep interest rates low as well in order to spur economic activity.

Employment

The labour market is an important component of the economy and serves as a key index for economic activity. During times of high unemployment, the RBA may lower interest rates to help businesses expand and create more jobs. Another piece of the labour market is wage growth: the RBA seeks to promote steady increases in worker wages within the context of inflation.

Economic Growth

Internal and external factors may cause the economy to grow or shrink at different rates. Economic growth is determined by changes in the Gross Domestic Product of the country, meaning the total value of goods and services produced each year. During the pandemic, RBA cash rates were slashed to help lighten the burden for businesses and individuals.

International Economy

Due to the interconnected nature of the global economy, financial activity abroad can substantially impact Australian markets, and vice versa. Strong growth overseas can boost demand for Australian exports, while foreign recessions or trade tensions can hurt the Australian economy.

How does the RBA cash rate affect lending?

Many lenders interact with the Reserve Bank of Australia for financial transactions, meaning that an array of loans, credit offers, and other products are affected by the RBA cash rate. Lower rates make it more affordable for consumers to make big purchases and access lines of credit.

How do RBA interest rates affect my home loan?

The RBA cash rate plays a major role in what interest rates a home lender can offer. For a variable rate home loan, the cash rate is among the biggest factors that affect the rate going up or down, although other loan operating costs can also have an impact. Meanwhile, fixed rate home loans are naturally more affordable when the RBA cash rate is cheaper.

Note that banks are not required to change their rates alongside the RBA, though they often do. When the cash rate is low, banks and other home lenders can offer competitive loan interest rates to consumers.

How do RBA interest rates affect my savings?

When the cash rate is high, many consumers will opt to keep their money in savings rather than spending it. This means that banks will offer better savings interest rates in order to attract customers searching for higher-yield savings accounts.

What are the future interest rates in Australia going to be?

Exact future rates are difficult to predict, but looking at the key indicators of economic performance provides useful insight. Interest rates have already gone up substantially in the past year as a result of high inflation after the pandemic. However, with inflation appearing to subside, the cash rate hikes are predicted to slow down.

Experts from the CVA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ are forecasting that rates will peak around 4.35% to 4.60% in August of 2023, and will then start climbing down towards 3.10% to 3.35% by the end of 2024. This is consistent with the moderate recovery that the economy has experienced after the shock periods of 2020 and 2021.

RBA cash rates FAQ

How much of the RBA rate cut do lenders pass on to borrowers?

Lenders are under no strict obligation to directly match any changes in the official RBA cash rate. However, they do have a market incentive to keep their rates competitive while still remaining profitable. When rates are cut, lenders will pass on an average of about ⅔ of the cut to the consumer. One reason for not passing on the full savings might be that lenders still have overhead costs or other liabilities on their balance sheet.

Can interest rates go lower than zero?

It is possible for rates to go below zero, and this has been done in nations like Sweden and Japan. The intent of a negative interest rate is to boost purchasing and investment. However, such a drastic movement can be interpreted as a dire emergency measure and hurt consumer confidence. This might have the opposite of the intended effect and make Australians save their money instead of spending it.

What should I buy when interest rates rise?

Interest rate hikes are usually done in response to a struggling economy, but there are still many opportunities to make sound investments in such an environment. Some of the assets that become popular during high-rate periods include value stocks, dividend-paying stocks, and short-term bonds.

Key focal points for RBA cash rates

Interest rates in Australia are a complicated financial topic with many external influences and impacts. Understanding the principles surrounding the RBA cash rate is critical to taking control of your finances and being able to weather uncertain economic conditions. Now that you have learned more about how RBA interest rates work and how they affect your finances, you can help secure your financial future.

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